Dear Elli,
Unpopular opinions are difficult things to have sometimes. I know. I have several of them. It's especially uncomfortable to openly voice an unpopular opinion because some people get really shitty when you don't agree with them. And then you have to defend your unpopular opinion without ever being shitty yourself. Because if you behave without 100% intellectual stoicism throughout the defense of your unpopular opinion, you're totally screwed. The shitty people will slay you if you get shitty back with them. Because then you're both shitty AND unpopular. And there's nothing worse than a shitty unpopular person. Everybody knows that.
I have a pretty unpopular opinion right now. I've been waffling back and forth about openly voicing said opinion, because I don't particularly relish people getting shitty with me. I'm a diplomatic soul. I like to find common ground. Most of the time, I'm pretty successful. It's all part of my charm.
But I think my unpopular opinion is relevant. Of course I do. Duh. All my opinions are relevant, just ask me. So here it goes.
It is my unpopular opinion that the response by the majority of the world to the coronavirus is totally, completely, 100% nonsensical.
I can almost see the target appearing on my back right now. I'm a total dumbass, right? Out of touch with reality. I don't care about our healthcare workers. I don't value human life. I'm a greedy, money hungry, white collar monster. I am soulless. I probably boil little children and puppies alive in a big black cauldron in our basement.
But I'd like to share the reasons I think this way. I promise I'm a fairly decent human being.
I'm 38 years old. I'm healthy, thank God. According to the general consensus of scientists across the world, the overall chance of a human being dying from coronavirus is most likely somewhere between 0.5% and 1%. We'll find out for sure sometime in the future when this shitshow is over. But for now, let's go with the general consensus. My personal odds of dying are even lower than the overall average, because I'm young(ish) and healthy. This general consensus of course takes into consideration the millions of people who have been infected but have not been tested. I'm not making this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
Now stay with me here for a few more minutes. Let's keep going.
The odds of someone who is older and/or less healthy than me dying from coronavirus are significantly higher than my own personal risk. To deny that fact would be ridiculous. This is a dangerous virus. It is deadly to some. And we should be protecting those people. Those people are mostly our parents and grandparents. You know, the people currently watching our kids while we work at the grocery store or the pharmacy or the hospital or any other essential job because the schools and vast majority of day care centers are closed. Are you starting to see where I'm going with this?
This virus isn't particularly dangerous to children. Not more dangerous than many other childhood illnesses, and less dangerous than some. I'm not making this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
For you and me, we quite literally have a greater likelihood of dying in a car accident on our way to the grocery store (0.97%) than of catching coronavirus at the grocery store and dying from it. I could lick all the cart handles at Target and not change those odds. I won't, because that's gross. But it doesn't make it less true. I'm not making this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
So why are we quarantining you and me and all the other people who are just like us? Why aren't we focused 100% on our most vulnerable population? I have yet to see a single piece of scientific data that shows me that quarantining everyone is safer for our most vulnerable population than specifically quarantining our most vulnerable population. If that data exists and I have somehow missed it entirely, I will bow down and apologize profusely for being wrongly unpopular.
Let's look at some other numbers now. As of right this moment, the University of Washington (the most popular) projections indicate that 68,841 Americans will die as a result of the coronavirus. 489 of them Ohioans. That's a lot of people, and it's awful. But several weeks ago we were told that millions could die. And then it was maybe 200,000. And now it's 68,841. Is this all because we're really freaking masterful at social distancing? I don't know the answer to that question, but it's certainly worth asking.
Worldwide deaths as of the moment I'm typing this are 133,572. That's a lot of people, and I have no intention of implying in any way that any human life is expendable. You know me better than that. But let's put some perspective into these numbers. This virus has been spreading like wildfire throughout planet Earth for the past four months. There are confirmed cases in 185 countries. 7.6 billion human beings live on this planet. Over the past four months, heart disease has killed over 3,200,000 people worldwide. Coronavirus has killed 133,572. Perspective.
So what are we doing? So far, we're locking down a massive portion of our population to protect us from a disease that, for most of us, is less dangerous over time than driving a car. But the grocery store is open. And Home Depot. And Target. And public transportation. But not schools or daycare centers.
So the healthy young and young(ish) essential workers are breathing all over their kids at dinner, kissing them good night, and then sending them to Grandma's house in the morning when they go to work. Even though Grandma is the one lady in the family who desperately needs to be protected. That makes total sense, right? And it's happening in lots of American households every single day.
We're doing this to flatten the curve. To ensure our healthcare system isn't overburdened. I can get down with that idea.
Except the data doesn't support this strategy as necessity in the vast majority of places within our country. The vast majority of our hospitals in this country so far have not been overburdened. Not even close. Not even close to close.
There are outliers, as there always are. NYC is a mess. Population density results in larger infection rates for any infectious disease, and NYC has a massive population. More than double the population of any other city in the US. That's undeniably true. And it's also undeniably true that Cleveland is not NYC. That Oklahoma City is not Cleveland. That Atlanta is not Oklahoma City. And even beyond that, the US is not Italy. Italy is not South Korea. And nobody is China, because that country lies like a fine Persian rug. The world is not homogeneous, and neither is the United States. I'm not making this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
Our economy is going down the toilet. Every single day it gets worse. Every figure released indicates the severity of this economic nightmare is almost incomprehensible. It's so insanely awful that nobody can even project the extent of the damage at this point, but we all know it's bad.
16 million people are unemployed. That only took three weeks. It's worse today. It will be even worse tomorrow when the next report comes out. Estimates indicate 20% of small businesses won't even be here when this is over. Our manufacturing sector just saw it's greatest decline since 1946. Retail is a disaster. Banks are gearing up for massive consumer and commercial loan defaults. Even our healthcare workers are being furloughed by the thousands every day. We have unleashed a flood of trillions of dollars to stem the tide. And we'll have to unleash more shortly to even attempt to keep up. But it won't be enough. No amount of stimulus will ever be enough to counteract near zero economic production. It just doesn't work that way.
Our government is hemorrhaging, our big corporations, our small businesses, and our individual citizens. All hemorrhaging money at an unprecedented rate. The cash is flooding from every orifice we have. It's like the Hoover Dam is leaking from a hole the size of a building, and we're using my pinky finger to plug it.
There may have been nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy four weeks ago, but it is most certainly fundamentally jacked up now. Not like 2008 jacked up. Worse. A lot worse. It's just a matter of to what degree at this point. I'm not making any of this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
I've seen lots of social media posts implying that the economy is far less important than our public health. And people who think like I do are monsters. But guess what? We have no public health without our economy. If there is no money, there is no healthcare. Period. Whether we love Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump, the answer is still the same. No money, no economy, no healthcare, no nothing. That's how this works. I'm not making this shit up. Look it up if you don't believe me.
I'm worried. I'm not worried much about coronavirus, though. I'm worried about my family, my friends, my clients, and all of our futures. I don't wake up in the middle of the night terrified that you are going to get coronavirus. But I do wake up in the middle of the night terrified that the path we have chosen thus far is paved with good intentions and very hellish results.
My hope is that our leaders will take a hard look at what we're doing right now, and find a balanced strategy. A strategy to protect both our health, and also our way of life. Because my unpopular opinion is that both are equally important.
I love you and I hope you love me too. Even though I'm unpopular.
Mom
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